Late at night in his cluttered 16th Century Parisian quarters… could Nostradamus, the bearded and controversial seer, ever have predicted the devastating impacts of climate change?
Non, je ne le pense pas. Translation: I think not.
Some same he was accurate on many other prophecies, but not this one. And the news keeps getting worse.
According to the Guardian online, late last week the British government raised the political stakes by releasing a new map of the world that outlines the likely effects of a failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Launched to coincide with the London Science Museum’s new ‘Prove It’ campaign, it’s got the backing of the British government, and is an initiative of the Met Office, and UK Foreign Secretary, David Miliband and his brother, Ed Miliband, secretary of energy and climate change.
High-profile support like this is giving the campaign massive media coverage in the UK.
The map shows the impact of an average 4C rise in global temperature, which the Met Office claims could come as soon as 2060. John Beddington, the UK government’s chief scientist, said a rise of 2C from present levels will be problematic, but 4C would be “disastrous”.
Beddington explained that a ’4C world’ would lead to temperatures rising from 10-12C on the hottest days, making life “unbearable”. In northern regions, tundra would melt and vegetation would rot, releasing huge amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.
Ocean acidification will continue to increase. Beddington said that oceans are as acidic as they’ve been for 25 million years, and if temperatures rise by 4C, they’ll be more acidic than in the last 400 million years.
The Guardian states that about half of our carbon emissions are currently soaked up by oceans and ecosystems, which dramatically softens the impact of increased carbon emissions. With a 4C rise, scientists say the amount of emissions re-absorbed in this way could shrink to just 30%.
David Miliband said if we reach the plus-4C point, the number of people suffering from severe water shortages will rise 8-fold to a staggering 4 billion. Massive migrations will be more common, as people search for water and food. In volatile regions like the Middle East and sub-Sahara Africa, where water shortages are already acute, this 4C rise will intensify conflict and insecurity.
“Those sort of strains and stresses can only be exacerbated”, the UK Foreign Secretary explained.
David Miliband said that in a “4C world… the UN Security Council will be dominated by questions related to climate change.”
The release of the map, produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre, reflects a shift in the political discourse, where previously decision-makers had been reluctant to discuss the possibility of a failure to hit the 2C target.
David and his brother Ed stressed the danger posed by the failure of reaching a sound climate change deal in Copenhagen.
“We cannot cope with a 4C world. This map clearly illustrates the scale of the challenge facing us today … To tackle the problem of climate change, all of us, foreign ministries, environment ministries, treasuries, departments of defence, and all parts of government and societies, must work together to keep global temperatures to 2C,” he said.
Ed Miliband said: “Britain’s scientists have helped to illustrate the catastrophic effects that will result if the world fails to limit the global temperature rise to 2C. With less than 50 days left before agreement must be reached, the UK is going all out the persuade the world of its need to raise its ambitions so we get a deal that protects us from a 4C world.”
The map is terrifying. As terrifying as Nostradamus’ gloomiest predictions. But unlike the stocking-wearing soothsayer, this map has the sober force of science behind it.
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